What Are The Hidden Dangers Looming Over Asset Markets?

Darius recently sat down with Anthony Pompliano to discuss the risks of a stronger US dollar, a potential global refinancing air pocket, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the two most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. How Can A Stronger US Dollar Cause Problems For Asset Markets?

Our research indicates one significant implication of a strong US dollar is that it pressures foreign investors to repatriate dollar-denominated assets to service the 70% of global debt and 60% of cross-border lending that rely on the US dollar.

The events of 2022 provide a clear example of the potential consequences in such an environment. During a major US dollar rally from January to September of that year, the dollar appreciated by 18%, leading to a reduction in liquidity and severe declines across asset classes, as Gold fell 10%, US equities dropped 25%, US Treasury bonds declined 31%, and Bitcoin plummeted approximately 58%.

Moreover, tariff policies introduced by the Trump Administration, along with potential changes in the Treasury’s net financing policy, may accelerate dollar strength. Coupled with ongoing US economic exceptionalism—driven by tax cuts and deregulation—these factors could push the dollar even higher, increasing the pressure on markets and global financial stability.

If the Federal Reserve’s policy options are constrained by a resilient economy or persistent inflation, it may struggle to prevent the dollar from trending higher, creating significant challenges for asset markets.

2. Is A Global Refinancing Air Pocket On The Horizon?

At 42 Macro, we conducted a deep-dive empirical study on the global refinancing cycle and found it is, in fact, a key leading indicator of global liquidity.

By tracking the year-over-year growth rate of world total non-financial sector debt, lagged by four and a half years to align with typical refinancing timelines, we observe a strong correlation with fluctuations in global liquidity growth. Currently, the lagged growth rate of global non-financial sector debt is accelerating sharply, and our models project this trend to continue through late 2025.

While conventional wisdom suggests this is likely to catalyze an increase in global liquidity, the risk remains that liquidity may fail to expand meaningfully, thus creating a global refinancing air pocket, similar to the divergences observed in 2008-2009, 2011, 2015-2016, 2018-2019, and 2022. If global liquidity fails to follow the path of the year-over-year growth rate of world total non-financial sector debt, we believe it is likely to lead to severe disruptions—or even a meltdown—in global financial markets, negatively impacting asset markets along the way.

Since our bullish pivot in November 2023, the QQQs have surged 44% and Bitcoin is up +184%.

If you have fallen victim to bear porn and missed part—or all—of this rally, it is time to explore how our KISS Portfolio Construction Process or Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” will keep your portfolio on the right side of market risk going forward.

Thousands of investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, accurate, and affordable signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just high-quality insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of our global #Team42 community of thoughtful investors.

Is The Fed On The Precipice Of Another Major Policy Mistake?

Darius recently hosted Unlimited Funds CEO Bob Elliot on this month’s 42 Macro Pro to Pro, where they unpacked the Fed’s asymmetrically dovish reaction function, the impact of the work-from-home phenomenon, their systematic approaches to investing, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Is Driving the Fed’s Expansionary Monetary Policy?

We authored our “Resilient U.S. Economy” theme in September 2022, and since then, we have identified a new contributing pillar: the continuation of expansionary monetary policy.

We believe this policy direction is puzzling, driven largely by the Fed’s belief that no further cooling in the labor market is needed to achieve 2% inflation—a stance we view as highly likely to be inaccurate. Nevertheless, it remains the Fed’s current perspective.

Bob Elliot offered an insightful take on this issue, suggesting that the Fed’s position likely stems from a fundamental disconnect between how academics interpret markets and models versus how practitioners do. This divergence may explain their controversial outlook on the labor market’s role in achieving their desired inflation target.

2. How Is The Work-From-Home Phenomenon Affecting Labor Market Dynamics?

At 42 Macro, we monitor various workforce dynamics metrics, including Nonfarm Productivity Growth and the Private Sector Quits Rate. Our analysis shows that Productivity Growth is currently above trend, while the Private-Sector Quits Rate has declined significantly from its elevated levels over the past couple of years.

We believe this shift toward longer employee tenures is likely a key driver behind the current above-trend rate of productivity growth, as longer retention generally leads to greater employee efficiency. This increased productivity is helping to offset some of the inflationary pressures stemming from higher wages and income growth, and we believe it is likely to persist.

Additionally, the rise of remote work plays a significant role in this dynamic. With the flexibility to live and work from virtually anywhere, employees are more likely to stay with their current employers, further contributing to lower turnover and increased productivity.

3. Why Did We Replace Core Fixed-Income Exposure with Gold in Our KISS Portfolio?

One of the recent adjustments we made in our systematic KISS Portfolio Construction Process was to replace our core fixed-income exposure with gold. This decision reflects our understanding that if our Investing During A Fourth Turning Regime analysis proves true over the long term, it is highly unlikely that bonds will outperform other assets on a real, risk-adjusted basis.

While we recognize that no one—including us—is ever 100% correct on their fundamental views, even partial accuracy in our predictions suggests a strong likelihood that assets like gold, Bitcoin, stocks, and real estate will prove to be far better hedges against accelerated monetary debasement and financial repression than bonds. Indeed, we expect monetary debasement and financial repression to be tools that the Fed employs to address the challenges of excessive sovereign debt and a robust economy that leaves little incentive for buyers of government bonds.

Given this dynamic, we pivoted entirely out of core fixed-income exposure and allocated that portion of our systematic KISS Portfolio Construction Process to gold in October. Our 60/30/10 trend-following strategy now features maximum allocations of 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin.

Since our bullish pivot in November 2023, the QQQs have surged 37%. Momentum $MTUM is up +48% and Bitcoin is up +169%.

If you have fallen victim to bear porn and missed part—or all—of this rally, it’s time to explore how our KISS Portfolio Construction Process or Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” will keep your portfolio on the right side of market risk going forward.

Thousands of investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, accurate, and affordable signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of our global #Team42 community of thoughtful investors.

Buying The Dip In A Risk On Market

Darius sat down with Schwab Network’s Nicole Petallides last week to discuss the current risk-on Market Regime and the outlook for asset markets.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

We Are In A Risk-On Market Regime And Believe Investors Should Consider Buying This Dip For Three Reasons:

U.S. growth is likely to exceed consensus expectations over the medium term, alongside an improving global economy.
The Federal Reserve maintains an asymmetrically dovish reaction function, which we believe will continue to support asset markets over the medium term.
U.S. and global liquidity are likely to accelerate markedly over the medium term.

Despite our being in a risk-on Market Regime, our positioning model recently indicated a high risk of a correction in risk assets, and we believe the current decline in stocks is likely the beginning of that correction.

We do not expect this correction to be severe, likely no more than 5-8% in $SPX price terms. The earliest we currently anticipate a sustained risk-off market regime commencing is Q2 of next year.

By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of the 42 Macro universe.

The Biggest Threat To The US Economy Today

Darius recently joined our friend Anthony Pompliano, where they discussed the impact of the recent port strike, the outlook for inflation, the national debt, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Impact Will The Recent Port Strike Have On The Economy?

Many of the goods entering the country pass through the ports along the Gulf Coast, East Coast, and the Port of Long Beach. We believe the recent shutdowns at these ports are likely to cause a temporary stagflationary effect.

To track the potential impact on inflation, we monitor the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which include a subindex for slower supplier delivery times. Our research shows these delivery times surged during the pandemic and after the early 2021 Biden stimulus, but have since retreated, coinciding with a decline in core inflation.

However, with the port shutdowns – now scheduled to begin on January 15th – we expect delivery times to rise again, further contributing to the stickiness in inflation we are currently observing.

2. Is 3% Inflation The New 2%?

We first published our secular inflation model at the beginning of 2022, which predicts a higher underlying trend in core PCE inflation over the next decade.

From 2010 to 2019, the 10-year run rate of core PCE inflation was 1.6%. However, our model projects a range of 2.7% to 3.1% for 2020 to 2029.

We have maintained the view that the Federal Reserve is prioritizing financial and economic stability over strict adherence to its 2% inflation target. Inflation has effectively become the Fed’s third mandate, and we believe the Fed will ultimately tolerate a higher trend inflation rate over the next decade, likely around 3%, even if they do not officially adjust their target.

3. Do Both Political Parties Contribute To The Deficit?

Our deep dive into historical economic and policy dynamics reveals that both Republicans and Democrats have contributed to the national debt.

Since the post-war era, the growth rate of the national debt under both administrations has been roughly similar:

After one year, median cumulative debt growth is 7% under Democrat Presidents and 6% under Republican Presidents.
After two years, it is 10% for Democrats and 12% for Republicans.
By the third year, both are around 22%.
By the fourth year, Republicans outpace Democrats with 39% debt growth compared to 26%.

Whether through increased fiscal spending or tax cuts that widen the deficit, our research indicates that both parties are responsible for the unchecked growth of public debt in the United States.

In short, the data run counter to emotional narratives bandied about by the media (e.g., Fox News) and increases the probability the US experiences a fiscal crisis in this Fourth Turning Regime because it lowers the probability of fiscal austerity being implemented.

That’s a wrap!

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and stress from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.

The Fed Is Easing Into A Major Regime Shift

Darius recently sat down with our friend Felix Jauvin from Blockworks, where they discussed the Fed, the bond market, a positive inflection in the fiscal impulse, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. Is The Fed Cutting Rates to Ease or Normalize?

When the Fed cuts rates, it is important to distinguish between policy normalization and easing. Outright easing refers to the Fed lowering the policy rate below neutral to stimulate the real economy.

Normalization, however, aims to bring the policy rate to a neutral level without additional stimulus. We believe the Fed is cutting rates to normalize policy rather than stimulate the economy.

Taking a step back, the Fed is lowering the policy rate during a business cycle expansion, with growth already likely to exceed expectations according to our GRID Model projections. Altogether, this creates a generally supportive environment for asset markets.

2. Is the Bond Market Pricing In A Recession?

When examining the neutral policy rate in U.S. dollar money markets, we find that they are only pricing in about half of a recession.

Historically, on a median basis, during postwar U.S. recessions, the Fed has lowered the policy rate by around 400 basis points. In recessions caused by overly restrictive monetary policy, the Fed has lowered the policy rate by a median of 475 basis points.

With roughly 250 basis points of rate cuts currently priced in, this reflects only 50-55% of a typical recession. We disagree that the bond market is fully pricing in a recession. Instead, we believe the market is pricing in a bimodal distribution: one scenario of a soft landing (which we currently are in the camp of) and the other of a potential recession.

3. How Has The Fiscal Impulse Changed In Recent Months?

At 42 Macro, we track US Treasury Federal Budget Net Receipts, Net Outlays, and the Budget Balance on a fiscal year-to-date, year-over-year percentage change basis.

When observing the data, we find the fiscal impulse has been modestly negative since early 2024. Through July, the budget deficit was down 6% on a fiscal year-to-date, year-over-year percentage change basis. However, with the data through August, the budget deficit has risen by 24%. This marks a significant inflection from a negative fiscal impulse to a positive one.

This dynamic will likely contribute to our GRID Model projections for Nominal GDP to surprise to the upside in the US economy over the medium term. That dynamic favors overweighting risk assets like stocks, credit, crypto, and commodities and underweighting defensive assets like bonds and the US dollar.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.

Why The Fed Needs To Front Load Rate Cuts

Darius recently joined our friend Charles Payne on Fox Business, where they discussed the outlook for the US economy, the impact of rate cuts, the significance of the Dollar, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Is The Medium Term Outlook On The Economy?

While the slowing economy might seem concerning after a significant market rally, we believe growth is likely to surprise to the upside over the medium term.

Generally speaking, the preponderance of evidence points to an economy that is moderating and a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing.

When observing the leading indicators of the broader business cycle, we believe they do not suggest investors should expect a recession over the medium term, which is positive for asset markets.

2. How Would A 50 Basis Points Cut Affect The Global Economy?

The U.S. Net International Investment Deficit doubled in the five years through 2023, increasing from $10 trillion in Foreign-Owned U.S. Assets to $20 trillion. This means a large amount of unrealized capital gains may flow out of the U.S. if the Fed is not careful managing the pace of the dollar’s decline.

A 50 basis point cut next week would likely send a signal to international capital allocators that something might be wrong with the U.S. economy, causing them to book gains and return home with their capital.

In our view, we would not suggest starting with a 50 basis point cut. However, if data from the labor market and inflation support it, the Fed should accelerate the pace of easing between now and the end of March. Beyond that, their window to continue easing may close for a while due to accelerating inflation.

3. How Will The DXY Impact Asset Markets Over The Next 12 Months?

The dollar is typically the most dominant factor in driving the global economy and global liquidity.

We believe the dollar is poised to decline significantly over the next 12 months, which should provide a positive boost to global growth.

However, investors should remain cautious and continue favoring defensive sectors and factors within the equity and fixed income markets because this could also trigger the unwinding of popular trades, including the Yen carry trade.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.

2025 Warning: Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation, and Productivity Could Squeeze Markets

Darius recently joined our friend Jeremy Szafron on Kitco News, where they discussed the recent decline in housing starts, the U.S. economy, inflation, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Does The Recent Housing Market Data Indicate About The Broader Economy?

Recent housing starts and building permit data, along with last week’s NAHB homebuyer market sentiment report, suggest an accelerated decline in the housing market, with housing starts and building permit data at levels not seen since summer 2020. This is concerning because the housing cycle has historically been a persistent leading indicator of the broader business cycle.

As a result, we anticipate growth will slow in the coming months. However, we do not advise investors to position for a developing recession in the U.S. economy.

Specifically, the latest retail sales and industrial production data, and other persistent leading indicators of the business cycle, currently indicate a recession is unlikely to materialize over a medium-term time horizon (3-12 months). Instead, we are currently observing a meandering off the top of the growth curve, which we believe is likely to persist over the next year or so.

2. How Is The U.S. Economy Transitioning From Its Growth Cycle Upturn?

The U.S. economy has been in a growth cycle upturn since the summer of 2022 when we authored our ‘Resilient U.S. Economy’ theme. We are now observing an economy that is merely getting less resilient.

Current data suggests a softening labor market, potentially at a faster rate than in recent quarters. However, our comprehensive analysis of leading indicators—including jobless claims, temporary employment, cyclical employment, layoffs, discharge rates, productivity, and corporate profit growth—does not indicate an impending severe downturn that would pose significant market risk.

While growth is likely to slow over the medium term, we do not anticipate the U.S. economy will decelerate as rapidly as the consensus currently expects. As a result, we believe the rate cuts presently priced into the 2025 forward rate curve in the U.S. are unlikely to materialize. A reconciliation is likely to occur near the year, but for now, we maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for asset markets – especially through year-end.

3. What Economic Challenges Might Emerge In 2025?

Our research suggests the inflation cycle will hit its low in the coming months before rising throughout 2025. This scenario implies growth potentially slowing to a below-trend pace in early 2025, with inflation bottoming at a level inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% target before reaccelerating.

Concurrently, we might observe a moderation or significant slowdown in productivity growth. The combination of slowing growth, rising inflation, and reduced productivity could lead to a margin squeeze and a significant slowdown in earnings. From a timing perspective, we view the first half of next year as the period with the most market risk.

Investors will likely need to reset their expectations for 2025 earnings lower during this time. However, we do not believe the markets need to debate this excessively at present because, historically, markets typically focus only on the next one to three months.

That’s a wrap!

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime, without penalty.

Markets Turning From ‘Goldilocks’ Towards Deflation

Darius joined our friend Adam Taggart this week to discuss the risk of recession, inflation, the risk of a US fiscal crisis, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. How High Is The Risk of Recession In The Next 3 to 12 Months?

While we agree with the consensus that the economy is late cycle, with a low unemployment rate of 4.3% and an inverted yield curve since October 2022, we do not currently see a high risk of recession in the next 3 to 12 months.

Our assessment is based on our econometric study of all the postwar economic cycles in and around recession. That process consisted of normalizing the policy, profits, liquidity, growth, stocks, employment, credit, and inflation cycles, and comparing current trends to historical patterns leading into and through a recession. Despite observing significantly tight policy, we have not experienced the typical breakdown in the corporate profit cycle, liquidity cycle, growth cycle, or stock market cycle that usually occurs a few quarters ahead of a recession.

The current constellation of these leading indicators suggests limited recession risk in the medium term. However, we will continue monitoring and flagging critical inflections in these indicators for our clients, as the US economy remains in a late-cycle condition.

2. What Is Driving The Risk of A US Fiscal Crisis?

We believe the risk of a US fiscal crisis is much closer than most investors realize.

Our assessment stems from a significant shift in the labor versus capital dynamic around 2000 – Employee Compensation as a share of Domestic Corporate Businesses Value Added dropped below trend and has remained there, primarily influenced by factors like China’s entry into the WTO, globalization, and domestic deregulation. This shift has concentrated corporate profits among the elite, creating an inequitable situation and fueling the rise of populism on both sides of the political spectrum.

Many do not realize that both political parties are contributing to a high probability of a fiscal crisis by the end of this decade. Democrats are implementing policies that inflate the incomes of the lower half of the income distribution, while Republicans are doing the same for the upper half. These forms of socialism require piling on debt, which in turn is pushing us toward a potential fiscal crisis.

3. What Is The Outlook For Inflation?

Per the same deep-dive empirical study highlighted above, we have found that inflation is the most lagging indicator of the business cycle.

Heading into a downturn, policy generally tightens first, followed by a breakdown in corporate profits and liquidity. Growth and stocks break down about one to two quarters later, followed by employment and credit. Inflation usually breaks down below trend 12 to 15 months after a recession starts.

As a result, we believe it is very unlikely that inflation returns durably to trend without a recession in the US economy. We do not, however, believe price stability is the Fed’s priority in a Fourth Turning regime. Maintaining order in global sovereign debt markets amid structurally elevated public debts and deficits is far more important.

That’s a wrap! If you found this blog post helpful, explore our research for exclusive, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights you can act on today.

Cooling Inflation Could Create A ‘GOLDILOCKS Vibe’ In Asset Markets

Darius joined our friends at Mornings With Maria on Fox Business last week to discuss inflation, rate cuts, the resilient US economy, and more.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

Many positive fundamental catalysts are driving the market’s strong performance. Growth has been resilient, the labor market remains robust, and inflation is increasingly behaving in a manner that allows the Federal Reserve to consider policy rate cuts.

While the economy has been resilient, we believe it is likely to slow over the medium term. However, our research indicates growth is likely to surprise to the upside, and inflation is likely to surprise to the downside. This combination could cause the current GOLDILOCKS Market Regime to persist.
That said, current market conditions are not an all-clear signal for investors. We are in an adverse spot in the positioning cycle, with various metrics indicating we are in the late innings of the market cycle. Many indicators we track in our 42 Macro Positioning Model are flashing red for medium to longer-term risks despite optimistic calls for the S&P to reach 6000.
The U.S. economy has experienced a K-shaped recovery, where different segments of the population recover at different rates. The top third of income earners account for 51% of total consumer spending, while the bottom third accounts for only 15%. This disparity has significant political ramifications for this year’s election, and when considering the direction of the stock and bond markets, it is crucial to view the economy in aggregate terms.

That’s a wrap! If you found this blog post helpful, go to www.42macro.com/research to gain access to 42 Macro’s proprietary trading signals, asset allocation recommendations, and portfolio construction pivots.

Renewed Fears Of A No-Landing Scenario

Darius joined our friend Nicole Petallides on Schwab Network last week to discuss 42 Macro’s risk management signals, the resiliency of the US economy, the outlook for asset markets, and more.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

The Divergence Between Fed And Treasury Policy Creates A Complex Environment For Investors And Requires An Increased Reliance On Risk Management Signals Over Fundamental Predictions

When policymakers are not in sync, investing becomes more challenging. In an environment where all central banks row the boat in the same direction, investors experience a more favorable landscape. However, when signals across global growth, inflation, and policy are inconsistent, managing risk becomes significantly more complex.
The US consumer remains resilient, continuing to spend robustly. Our “Resilient US Economy” theme, which we authored in September 2022, is supported by the strong consumer balance sheets and income dynamics we have seen recently. This resilience has been a key driver of the risk-on Market Regime investors have experienced since November.
While the market impact of the policy divergence between the Treasury and the Fed remains uncertain, successful investing does not require you to predict the future; what it does require is an effective risk management system, which can help you navigate these uncertain times and stay on the right side of market risks. If you would like to add our proven risk management overlay to your investment process, we are here to help.

That’s a wrap!

If you found this blog post helpful:

1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights.

2. RT this thread and follow @DariusDale42 and @42Macro.

3. Have a great day!